Marathon race pace strategy

This week I have been going back and forth on my pacing strategy for tomorrow's BMO Vancouver Marathon. The goal is clear: cross the finish in 2:59, which means running a pace of 4:15 per kilometre or 6:51 per mile.

Theoretically, there are different ways of getting there and success hinges on choosing optimal pacing for the individual runner on that particular course. While there are simple tried and tested guidelines, the two key variables—assuming that crazy conditions won't throw a spanner in the works and the forecast for tomorrow indicates excellent weather—mean finding the perfect pace varies per runner and per race. 

The art of marathon pacing is a skill that can take a while to master.

Advanced Marathoning, my training guide for the past 10 months, discusses the various strategies: running the first half hard and trying to hang on for the second half, aiming to run steady, i.e. the same time for the second as for the first half, and finally, a negative split in which you cover the second half faster than the first.

Initially I was going to aim for a negative split by starting at a 4:20K (6:58 mile) average pace in the first 10K and then slowly speeding up. But, looking at the halfway times in my marathons, I realized that I have rarely covered the second half faster than the first. 

And Advanced Marathoning says, "[The] basics of marathon physiology indicate that the best strategy is relatively even pacing... Most runners shouldn't try to run dead-even splits, however.

"... your running economy will tend to decrease slightly during the race, meaning that your lactate-threshold pace will decrease slightly as well. The result is that your optimal pace will be slightly reduced during the latter stages of the marathon," according to Advanced Marathoning.

"If you ran negative splits for the marathon (i.e., the second half faster than the first half), chances are that your run more slowly than optimally during the first half of the race and could have had a faster finishing time."

In my past 11 marathons, all of which I ran in 3:15 or faster, I have done a slight negative split three times. That was in the 2008 Victoria marathon, where I ran the first half in 93:37 and the second in 93:33; in the 2010 Rotterdam marathon, where I covered the first half in 96:06 (with a very frustrating first 5K) and the second in 95:45; and in the 2011 Vancouver Marathon where I ran the first half in 93:5X, and the second half also in 93:5X.
 
In my fastest marathon to date, 3:06:06, I ran an average 4:25 per K and 7:06 per mile. However, I covered the first 21.1K in 91:32, or an average 4:20 per K and 6:58 per mile. By 30K, I was still on track for the same average pace, reaching this point in 2:10:01. This was also the point where I began slowing down; I ended up covering the final 12.195K in 56:05, an average 4:35 per K and 7:24 per mile.

Why did I slow down? Was my 4:20 pace too fast and catching up to me in the final 12K? Did I 'lose it' mentally, not willing to take the pain needed to sustain the pace until the end? Or was the 3:09 marathon I had run only two weeks earlier the reason? I think it was a combination of those three factors, though I'll never know for sure.

I do know that it was the fastest I had reached the halfway point as well as the 30K mark in a marathon. Two weeks earlier I had run the first half of the Bellingham Bay Marathon in 92:02, my second-fastest first half; there, strong headwind was a clear reason for my slowing down in the second half to 97:38, while the first half had only marginally benefited from a tailwind.

(Check out the brutal impact of the headwind here: Split1 is the first half, Split2 is the second half. Overall Bellingham winner Uli Steidl won the searing 2012 Boston Marathon Top Master's title in 2:23:08.)

Having looked at my first half times for the past 11 marathons, I also looked at my splits for the second half. The fastest I did in Victoria in 2008 in 93:33 and the second-fastest was in Vancouver in 2011 in 93:5X (the official half times displayed in the results are incorrect so I am taking my watch split).

Marathon history (excluding my first 4 marathons of 4:18, 4:44, 3:24 and 3:36):

                                           Finish  1st half 2nd half
5. July 2006          Gold Coast   3:13:01   96:25   96:36
6. April 2007        Canberra       3:08:48   93:04   95:44
7. July 2007          Gold Coast   3:15:13   93:14 101:59
8. May 2008         Vancouver     3:12:56   93:17  99:39
9. Sept 2008         Victoria         3:07:10   93:37  93:33
10. May 2009        Vancouver    3:10:19    94:26  95:53
11. June 2009        NODM         3:10:39   92:53   97:44
12. April 2010        Rotterdam   3:11:51    96:06   95:45
13. May 2011        Vancouver    3:07:41    93:5X  93:5X
14. Sept 2011         Bellingham   3:09:40   92:02   97:38
15. October 2011   Victoria        3:06:06  91:23  95:42

Tomorrow, theoretically, I am aiming to reach the halfway mark in 89:59, 74 seconds faster than I ever have, and then hold on to do it again in the final 21.1K; that would be 3:34 faster than my fastest second half (from October 2008).

2012 BMO marathon course profile

If I want a chance of finishing in 2:59, I will have to commit to a 4:15 pace in the first half. Having said that, the profile is quite varied in the first 10K. It will be important to go by feel rather than time, conserving energy on the uphill, and letting go on the downhill, though not too much as I need to save those quads.

At the start, however, I will certainly keep in mind Alberto Salazar's advice from his Guide to Road Racing, "By the time the race begins, your adrenaline is running full-bore, then suddenly (finally!) all that flight-or-fight hormone finds release. Your body knows what it's supposed to do: run! chase! go! The trouble is that it won't be giving accurate feedback for the first few minutes. A pace that feels easy will be way too fast."

"Be especially careful if a race starts on a substantial upgrade or downgrade. Starting too fast on an upgrade will suck energy out of you faster than doing so on the level."

While I have never run tomorrow's course in this set-up, the second half is familiar from different races; its key incline just before 30K is Burrard Bridge, which I have crossed in quite a few races now. And when I picked up my race package on Thursday, Tim and I drove the final 2K of the new course, as they are uphill. I have made a mental note to reserve extra willpower for this final stretch.  

The main pacing and race mantra I plan to use tomorrow is, Relax and let it happen, a serious piece of no-nonsense advice from Dessie Suttle, a good friend from Australia. Few people I know are more passionate about running than he is. A runner for more than 40 years, he visited us last year to run the Whistler 50.

While he considered this 50-miler his first real ultra, he technically had already done one—Six Foot Track in 1996, Australia's most popular trail 'marathon', when it was still a 47K course instead of the 45K it is now. Dessie ran a swift 5:00:07. 

A great storyteller with a photographic memory for every detail he's every read or heard about running, he's been a true student of the sport for most of his life. What I admire most about him is that he's kept running and racing all these years, even though he's no longer covering the 1500m in 4:23 (his 1975 PB), 3K in 9:23 (also 1975), 5K in 16:11 (twice, in 1985 and 1990) or the 10K in 33:06 (1985).

He also ran a 2:59:03 marathon in 1983.

During his visit, Dessie brought with him a well-thumbed paperback copy of the late Dr George Sheehan's This Running Life from 1980, and left it behind for me to read. I love Sheehan's Running & Being. I began reading it this week, and found another piece of advice I will keep in mind tomorrow.

"When I get on the line, I realize that the issue is 90 percent settled. My recent training, whether I am over or under or at my peak, the state of my health cannot be helped. These factors are out of my hands. They are behind me. I need no longer worry about them. I have to remember only two things; one, not to do anything stupid and two, not to quit," Sheehan wrote in the chapter called The Race.

One day to 50-miler

I woke up a couple of minutes before 6am after a sound night's sleep. In 24 hours we'll be on the startline  of the Whistler 50 Ultra. In the darkness I realized I had yet to pack my headlight.

Our visitor from Australia, Dessie, has already packed his gear, using a transition bag from one of his Ironmans when Minolta was still a sponsor (I think going back to 2001 when Germany's Normann Stadler and Canada's Lori Bowden won the Ironman Australia event). 

My nutrition bag is ready. It has 4 Powerbar energy bars, 9 gels of the same brand, a Snickers and a bag of Twizzlers. I've also thrown in 6 Hammer electrolyte tablets. A can of Red Bull might be added, too.

Two of the aid stations on the course, 4 laps with the first 17km and the remainder 21km each, will provide plenty of food as well. Water will be provided at aid stations no more than 5km apart. (I am debating whether to carry a bottle of water in the first couple of hour, though. TBD today.)

The weather forecast for Saturday has changed over the past week and it's looking good, if a bit chilly. The forecast high is 1 degree, with an expected low of minus 4. Whistler Village received a layer of snow this week but I hope the course will be mostly clear come tomorrow.

The last month since the Victoria Marathon seems to have flown by. Tim and I each got a total of 4 easy runs in, all around 30 minutes. Daily walks were part of my routine, and I felt those were plenty after my two marathons in the past six weeks.

I am planning to race as hard as I can on the day tomorrow, and am expecting to feel great. Having said that, finishing is not the main goal should I find that my body hasn't recovered enough from the Bellingham Bay and Victoria marathons. For me, the Whistler 50 is a bonus race; since the start of the year I had hoped to be able to do it after the two marathons.

As always, I have various time goals. My conservative goal is to finish sub-8 hours, and based on reaching the 79km mark in 8:03 in the 100km I did a year ago that should be realistic (famous last pre-ultra words). My dream goal is to cross the line in sub-7, which calls for a pace of at least 5:12 per km or 8:22 per mile.

Most likely, it will be somewhere in between.

Since there will be no kilometre or mile markers, locking into the right pace will have to be done by feel unless you opt for a Garmin. While I have one, I am not planning to wear it tomorrow at this stage.  

As for clothing, I'll be wearing 3/4 tights with compression socks. (Dessie said that he used to run without socks in the 70s, following the lead of his heros: "I thought socks showed weakness.")

I'll also wear a thermal long-sleeve top, with a vest on top in the early hours, a hat and gloves. In terms of shoes, with a course on hard-packed trails and roads, my New Balance REVlite 890s should do the trick.

I'll put a spare shirt, gloves, socks and pair of shoes in my drop bag, too. While there's only a 30 percent chance of rain, I'll waterproof the drop bag.

My iPod is coming too, with the same selection of music I used as in the 100km a year ago. I plan to save it for the last two laps.

We're all excited about racing the first edition of the Whistler 50 Relay and Ultra tomorrow.

A first for both Tim and Dessie in terms of distance, Dessie particularly liked one line in the Ultra Race Rules, another first in his nearly four decades of racing: "If the runner decides to drop out, it is MANDATORY that race management be informed of this decision, otherwise we will assume the runner is lost or eaten by a bear and will be searching for you."

Four days until a 50-miler

In four days I'll be starting my second 50-mile run, in Whistler. Tim and a friend from Australia, Dessie, are racing too, both making their debut at the distance. Neither are new to endurance sports, however, as both have finished multiple Ironmans and marathons.

Dessie also ran the Six Foot Track when it is was still 47km instead of the 45km it is now. He was on the startline with Mark Allen and Scott Tinley for the first Ironman in Australia, in Forster-Tuncurry, paying a whopping $37 (no, this is not a typo) for the privilege back in 1985.

The latest weather forecast for Saturday, race day, is a 40 percent chance of wet snow with temperatures between 0 and 4 degrees. The 6am start will be dark and chilly.

Since our Victoria Marathon 3-1/2 weeks ago, Tim and I have done three short easy runs including one with Dessie on the day of his arrival last Saturday. Yesterday the three of us trekked up the Chief, heading for the second peak to enjoy the spectacular views as the sun began setting, before we took the back route on the way down.

Amazingly it was the first time this year that Tim and I did the hike and I guess we forgot how long it takes. With our start a little past 4pm, we finished the final quarter or so in the dark about 2-1/2 hours later.

Dessie's Garmin had our pace per kilometre for 5-odd km at about 32 minutes:-).

We're all hoping to move a little faster on Saturday. The question is, How fast? I am hoping that 5:30 per km is a good pace to start, and would be stoked if I can hold that until the finish.

In the 100km a year ago, I reached 78.67km in 8hr 03, or a pace of 6:08 per km. So 5:30 (which would mean a 7hr 20 finish) might be aggressive for Saturday. But it doesn't hurt to try. Well, it will of course but you know what I mean...

When are you ready to run 100 miles?

As I am planning my 2011 race season, I know that I want to focus on speed in the first four months. My first race will be the First Half Marathon, held on Feb. 13, in Vancouver, which is only 10 weeks away.

In the past three months I have done no speedwork, the first time in 5 1/2 years that I have taken such a long break from that. Instead I ran as I pleased, doing lots of trail runs with my dog Luka.

Mentally I find it easier to cope with running for a long time at an easy pace than trying to push myself to run as fast as possible in speed workouts. So training for and running a 100km race was a perfect fit, after doing a 50-mile trail race in early August.

But now I am keen to resume the quest for speed, in particular my quest for the sub-3 marathon. The key question is what training program to follow? I haven't answered that one yet.

My plan is to work very hard on my speed for the First Half Marathon and subsequently for the Vancouver Marathon on May 1 or the North Olympic Discovery Marathon on June 5 (possibly both).

I'd also like to do the 50km Diez Vista trail race in April.

For the second half of 2011 I am looking at some more ultras and am tempted by races including the 125km Canadian Death Race and the 148km Sinister 7 (for which registration opens December 1). Both races are held in July.

The STORMY in Squamish on the first weekend of August is already firmly on my schedule but here's the key question: Do I sign up for the 50-mile, like I did this year, OR do I register for the 100-mile option?

The possibility of running 100 miles has been on my mind since I finished the 100km three weeks ago. Obviously it is a lot further than 100km plus the added challenge is that I'd have to negotiate a part of the course at night.

I believe I am ready to prepare for a 100 miler as I am extremely curious to find out what it is like which I think is always a positive sign. In our running, like in life, if we truly want to do something and set about preparing properly we usually have a good chance at achieving what we set out to do.

This year I enjoyed doing a wider range of distances, from 10km to 100km and running both on the road and on trails. Tacking on a few more kilometres would open up more possibilities for the 2012 as I have been intrigued by the famous 100 milers in the U.S. such as the Western States.  

As for now, I first need to decide on a training program soon that will help me return to working on my speed. Perhaps I will enjoy that so much that the 100 mile can wait another year.

The 2011 race season

As my recovery from the Haney to Harrison 100km is progressing well, I have been thinking more about the 2011 season.

I love race planning. The other day a friend wondered out loud how people decide on which races to do. A very good question.

For me, 2011 is about having a variety of distances, terrains and of course goals. Having run two ultras this year, I really enjoyed the variety it brought to my 5km, 10km, half - and marathon mix of the past five years. I absolutely love running and since I realized I love ultras I now have even more races to choose from.

I'd like to get faster on the 10km, half - and marathon distance, particularly in the latter I am keen to get closer to that elusive 3-hour mark.

With ultras I can be a beginner again, especially if they are on trails since I am a reasonably novice trail runner who is not yet very adept at negotiating down-hill trails. The distances are new, which allows me to do them with an open mind toward the time and focus on finishing.

Race planning is about finding goals that interest and excite you, whether it is getting faster or running further - or just trying something new.

With so many races on offer in and around Squamish that I haven't run that often, or not at all yet, I am happy to stay relatively close to home. Having said that, planning trips around races are always a great way to focus travel plans.

For 2011, I'd like to start with the First Half Marathon in February, hopefully followed by the Diez Vistas 50km trail run in March and then moving along to the Vancouver Marathon at the start of May.

The STORMY 50 mile trail was such a great experience that I'd like to do that one again, which is early August. (A very tiny part of me is wondering if I should try adding a second lap this year - but for now 100 miles seems a distance I am not quite ready for).
 
Another race that looks great is the Tucson Marathon because of its superswift-looking race profile.